De Bondt, W. F. M., & Thaler, R. H. (). Does the stock market overreact. Journal of finance, 40, Werner F M De Bondt and Richard Thaler · Journal of Finance, , vol. link: :bla:jfinan:vyip Behavioral finance theorists Werner De Bondt and Richard Thaler released a study in the Journal of Finance called “Does the Market Overreact?” In their .

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Journal of Financial Economics 12 June Shiller concludes that, at least over the last century, dividends simply do not vary enough to rationally justify observedaggregateprice movements.

The excess volatility issue has been investigated most thoroughly by Shiller [27]. Length of the Formation Period and No. Specifically, two hypotheses are suggested: While we are highly sensitive to these issues, we do not thaller the space to address them here. The quarterly journal debodt Economics 1, Mental accounting and consumer choice R Thaler Marketing science 4 3, Consistent with the predictions of the overreaction hypothesis, portfolios of prior “losers”, found to outperformprior “winners.

If no trade is possible, CRSP tries to find a subsequentquote and uses it to computea returnfor the last period. Possible answers to these questions deboondt the argument that investors may wait for years before realizing losses, and the observedseasonality of the market as a whole.


University of ChicagoBooth School of Business. As a final precaution, he also characterizes the securities in the extreme portfolios in terms of a number of financial variables. The bias can be seen by comparingthe CAPM-betasof the extreme portfolios. The overreactioneffect deserves attention because it represents a behavioralprinciple that may apply in many dehondt contexts.

Does the Stock Market Overreact?

Shiller interprets the Miller-Modiglianiview of stock prices as a constraint on the likelihood function of a price-dividendsample. For every stockj on the tape with at least 85 months of returndata months 1 through 85without any missing values in between, and starting in January month 49the next 72 monthly residualreturns ujt months 49 through are estimated. This observation is in agreement with the naive version of the tax-loss selling hypothesis as explained by, e. Similarly, the equity of combefore predictably panies with very high PIE’s is thought to be “overvalued,” falling in price.

The Journal of Finance, Vol. An equally weighted arithmetic average rate of return on all CRSP listed securities serves as the market index.

A third hypothesis, advocated by Marsh and Merton [19], is that Shiller’sfindingsare a result of his misspecificationof the dividendprocess. One method that allows us to further accentuate the strength of the January effect is to increase the number of replications.

Combiningthe results with Kleidon’s [18] findings that stock price movements are strongly correlatedwith the following year’s earnings changes suggests a clear pattern of overreaction. We discuss the implications for other empirical work on asset pricing anomalies.


Richard Thaler – Google Scholar Citations

If trading continues, the last return ends with the last listed price. New articles related to this author’s research.

The winner portfolio, on the other hand, gains value at the end thalr the year and loses some in Tgaler for more details, see De Bondt [7]. While the overreactionhypothesis has considerablea priori appeal,the obvious question to ask is: For a formation period as short as one year, no reversal is observed at all. If there were a persistent tendency for the portfolios to differ on dimensions that may proxy for “risk,” then, again, we cannot be sure whetherthe empiricalresults support market efficiency or market overreaction.

As time goes on and new securities appear on the tape, more and more stocks qualify for this step.

Thus, thaleer loser portfolios not only outperformthe winnerportfolios;if the CAPM is correct, they are also significantly less risky. Journal of PortfolioManagement10 Winter Russell and Thaler [24] addressthis issue.

There is no risk adjustmentexcept for movements of the market as a whole and the adjustment is identical for all stocks.